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This is written with serious investors in mind, though sometimes they're just drafts in progress. I'm a former reporter, private investigator and institutional equity analyst who digs deep to find niche undervalued and undiscovered securities. I manage money for individuals, institutions and family offices via my business Long Cast Advisers. This blog is part decision-diary, part investment observations and part general musings about Philadelphia sports. It should not be viewed as a solicitation for business or a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

A Comparison b/t C&I loan growth and the ratio of multi family to single family housing permits

Been looking at a lighting company that gets half its revenues from multi-family residential new construction.

Though a different company than TAYD, both are exposed in some way to institutional or commercial construction.

This chart shows changes in C&I loan growth (commercial and industrial loans) - the blue area graph - via FRB layered on top of housing permit data, specifically, the ratio of multifamily permits (five or more units) to single family permits.

I think the takeaway is that multi family construction permits really ramp relative to single family later in a cycle, and that there was a period of under building of multi-family units during the housing bubble.


My sense is that business is passed the peak, at least for the current cycle (yes Virginia, there is a business cycle, no matter how skewed it may be by interest rate policy).

Or maybe slowing C&I loan growth is from uncertainty about future policy and rates, due to the election.

I'm not a macro-investor I just love comparing things.

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THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION FOR BUSINESS OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES.

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