|Today||Calc 30-yrs ago|
|~ total market cap of S&P 500||$17,500,000,000,000||$2,000,000,000,000|
|as % of S&P 500 market cap||9.09%||0.28%|
|~S&P 500 price||$2,038||$212|
|max mkt cap as % of S&P mkt cap||3.07%||0.09%|
... now this is a really bad back-of-the-envelope analysis. I simply backed out the 30-yr market caps using the current market cap and the total return figures. So any dividends paid would therefore be reflected as a reduction in market value, skewing all of these companies smaller (I know, I know ... but I wonder how far off I am?).
I also estimated the total market value of the S&P from 1985 based on the market value of the top-10 companies - $300B - and assumed it represented 15% of the total. If I had to guess, it was probably smaller.
Maybe I'll trek down to SIBL and use their Bloomberg terminal or perhaps someone with Factset or Bloomberg can post actual market values from 12/31/1985? All the data I used is pasted below.
What this imperfect data shows (and what the actual data might show) is that the companies with the highest total returns over the last 30-years were all pretty small companies 30-years ago.
Obviously, not all small companies grow 107,000% over 30-years as the first name on the list shows (I talked with a PM who has owned BCPC over the last 30-years and he said, "Obviously I did not know what it would return") but I am confident that the population of companies that will grow exponentially in the future will most likely come from the small cap universe today.
As a patient investor, I expect the companies I buy today I will hold for many many years. And in fact, one name I've written about on this blog is Envirostar (EVI), and it has a connection to Watsco, which is # 29 on this list.
The relatively new CEO of EVI - Henry Nahmad - is the nephew / son of the executives at Watsco who started rolling up companies in the fragmented HVAC distribution business in the 1970's. Henry is in the early stages of planning a similar endeavor in the fragmented commercial laundry equipment distribution space. One can only hope the apple does not fall far from the tree.
Here are some links I used for the data.
Here's the list from the WSJ in gsheets if anyone wants to look at it ...
|30-yr||marketcap||calc marketcap||actual marketcap|
|name||% return||CAGR||ticker||today||30-yrs ago||30-yrs ago ???|
|Home Depot Inc||67,795||24.27||HD||$160,083,194,883||$235,780,536|
|UnitedHealth Group Inc||40,503||22.16||UNH||$109,512,046,230||$269,714,174|
|Kansas City Southern||37,384||21.83||KSU||$7,784,655,487||$20,767,942|
|Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.||36,716||21.76||JKHY||$6,479,110,661||$17,598,627|
|Altria Group Inc||28,432||20.72||MO||$119,269,087,150||$418,018,671|
|Monster Beverage Corporation||25,323||20.26||MNST||$27,373,551,700||$107,672,390|
|Expeditors International of Washington||20,127||19.34||EXPD||$8,425,048,167||$41,652,485|
|CVB Financial Corp.||16,232||18.49||CVBF||$1,631,987,874||$9,992,578|
|Helen of Troy Limited||16,057||18.45||HELE||$2,530,920,774||$15,664,546|
|St. Jude Medical, Inc.||15,951||18.42||STJ||$14,896,194,389||$92,805,398|
|Raymond James Financial, Inc.||14,588||18.07||RJF||$6,336,206,163||$43,138,659|
|Applied Materials, Inc.||14,082||17.93||AMAT||$20,096,658,964||$141,705,394|
|Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.||13,912||17.88||CBRL||$3,144,699,741||$22,442,904|
|SEI Investments Company||13,256||17.69||SEIC||$6,458,793,934||$48,358,745|
|Precision Castparts Corp.||13,152||17.66||PCP||$32,326,359,944||$243,935,707|
|Lowe's Companies, Inc.||13,030||17.62||LOW||$65,830,888,057||$501,377,670|
|Dynamic Materials Corporation||11,943||17.28||BOOM||$86,167,976||$715,503|
THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION FOR BUSINESS OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES.